Does this fully explain why Find Out Now's figures for Reform's lead are so much better than every other pollster - the others are downweighting or reallocating 2024 dnv who now say Reform? Do you think anything else explains the disparity between their numbers and everyone else's?
With respect, this is cope. Runcorn was always a stretch target for Reform, there are hundreds of seats which are more vulnerable to them on paper. They were never going to “walk it”. More generally, what actual election data we have mostly reflects national polling.
That said, we're still three to four years from another general election, and my sense is that there's a lot more room for the Reform vote to fall than there is for it to grow. (But I also said that when they were on about 20%, and now they're up to nearly 30…)
Does this fully explain why Find Out Now's figures for Reform's lead are so much better than every other pollster - the others are downweighting or reallocating 2024 dnv who now say Reform? Do you think anything else explains the disparity between their numbers and everyone else's?
The Conservatives cannot recover unless they will become far more radical.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is proposing an alliance with Reform. I doubt that it will happen. See my article here:
https://hellish2050.substack.com/p/jacob-rees-mogg-will-i-join-reform
Fascinating read.
With respect, this is cope. Runcorn was always a stretch target for Reform, there are hundreds of seats which are more vulnerable to them on paper. They were never going to “walk it”. More generally, what actual election data we have mostly reflects national polling.
That said, we're still three to four years from another general election, and my sense is that there's a lot more room for the Reform vote to fall than there is for it to grow. (But I also said that when they were on about 20%, and now they're up to nearly 30…)