Does this fully explain why Find Out Now's figures for Reform's lead are so much better than every other pollster - the others are downweighting or reallocating 2024 dnv who now say Reform? Do you think anything else explains the disparity between their numbers and everyone else's?
Anyone remember the shy Conservatives phenomenon at the 1992 General Election? If the Runcorn by-election result is any guide, the same thing may be happening to Conservative voters who are afraid of Farage / Reform. Reform were supposed to walk it but Labour came within a whisker of retaining the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote collapsed. Could the rise of Reform could be creating shy Labour voters?
With respect, this is cope. Runcorn was always a stretch target for Reform, there are hundreds of seats which are more vulnerable to them on paper. They were never going to “walk it”. More generally, what actual election data we have mostly reflects national polling.
That said, we're still three to four years from another general election, and my sense is that there's a lot more room for the Reform vote to fall than there is for it to grow. (But I also said that when they were on about 20%, and now they're up to nearly 30…)
Thanks for your response. Out of three polls I saw, two (Ashcroft, Find Out Now) put Reform ahead by 3 - 5 points. The only one which had them behind was yours. I’m still interested in this issue of shy voters. If there were a GE tomorrow, do you think Conservative voters in Lab > Reform two-horse races would a) all go to Reform b) stay at home c) vote Labour d) other? I’m genuinely interested in what you think might happen to the Conservative vote if Conservative voters recognise the party cannot win in Lab > Reform two-horse races.
Does this fully explain why Find Out Now's figures for Reform's lead are so much better than every other pollster - the others are downweighting or reallocating 2024 dnv who now say Reform? Do you think anything else explains the disparity between their numbers and everyone else's?
Fascinating read.
Anyone remember the shy Conservatives phenomenon at the 1992 General Election? If the Runcorn by-election result is any guide, the same thing may be happening to Conservative voters who are afraid of Farage / Reform. Reform were supposed to walk it but Labour came within a whisker of retaining the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote collapsed. Could the rise of Reform could be creating shy Labour voters?
With respect, this is cope. Runcorn was always a stretch target for Reform, there are hundreds of seats which are more vulnerable to them on paper. They were never going to “walk it”. More generally, what actual election data we have mostly reflects national polling.
That said, we're still three to four years from another general election, and my sense is that there's a lot more room for the Reform vote to fall than there is for it to grow. (But I also said that when they were on about 20%, and now they're up to nearly 30…)
Thanks for your response. Out of three polls I saw, two (Ashcroft, Find Out Now) put Reform ahead by 3 - 5 points. The only one which had them behind was yours. I’m still interested in this issue of shy voters. If there were a GE tomorrow, do you think Conservative voters in Lab > Reform two-horse races would a) all go to Reform b) stay at home c) vote Labour d) other? I’m genuinely interested in what you think might happen to the Conservative vote if Conservative voters recognise the party cannot win in Lab > Reform two-horse races.