What if it is Green vs. Reform in Gorton and Denton?
What would happen if the Greens were the tactical voting option, not Labour? Plus: the Owen Jones scoop that Green veterans say is... [redacted]
It was Monday, 6pm. Not even two weeks since the call of poll for the Gorton and Denton by-election. Commentator Owen Jones tweets a scoop.
“The Green Party have shared doorstep data with me across Gorton and Denton.”
The figures he posts are stark. Reform, 39 per cent. Green, 34. And Labour, far off in third, on 21 per cent.
Humiliating figures for the incumbents, if true. Emphasis, if true.
Because Green veterans have got in touch with Britain Elects however to say “it’s bollocks.”
“We’re not sure who’s telling him that.”
“And generally you should not be using canvassing returns like a poll because that’s not how they work.”
Publicly, none of us know whether these numbers have been put through an internal Green Party model, or just an excitable teenager looking to cultivate relations with a renowned writer.
Canvass returns are not necessarily a reliable sample of how a seat intends to vote. Confirmation bias is one persistent theme of a canvass. By and large the resident wants you to bugger off. So how best to make that happen? Affirm without commitment. Welcome to canvassing 101. People lie.
But I think the widespread view about Owen’s scoop is that it is, regrettably, to coin the Green friend’s phrase, bollocks. If your own returns have you behind an opponent party, chances are you’re doing very badly. I know of a Labour campaign in a Cheshire by-election for instance where the promise rate (those saying they’ll vote Labour) was 30 per cent, to 15 per cent for the Conservatives. Labour ended up getting 17 per cent to the Tories’ 50.
Nevertheless, Owen has doubled down, in claiming it affirms what Reform have been leaking to the Times’ Patrick Maguire. No data. No actual numbers. Just vibes. And, ladies and gentleman, leaked for what reason…?
Maybe I’m too new to journalism. Maybe it’s my own Labour affiliation talking. Maybe I should regurgitate everything that validates my pre-determined prejudices. But I think some people ought to be better than this.
But as I’ve written for the New Statesman, the Greens — and their friends in the media — don’t need to make things up to gain momentum in Gorton and Denton. They can realistically win this. It is a narrow path. It’s less probable than probable. They need to sustain a lead among Pakistani and Bangladeshi voters in the seat greater than what national polling suggests. They need to break new bread with white working class voters that, again, aren’t quite as favourable to them as those of a middle to upper class bent.
Gorton and Denton is doable. They can certainly claim a fifth of the vote. A quarter is credible. A third is unlikely, but not impossible. Victory in such a split set of communities will lie between 25 and 35 per cent. Labour only needs to come decent seconds in both Gorton and Denton to claim a win. The Greens need to do more than that.
Much of my coverage has appreciably been on what if Labour was the tactical voting choice of progressive minded voters in Gorton and Denton. The effect brings the race down to a few hundred votes, with Labour and Reform neck and neck. If Andy Burnham were the candidate, this wouldn’t be a debate.
But what if the Greens were perceived by most voters as the tactical voting choice?
We don’t know if that’s happening. The Greens are trying. Labour are trying. It’s a battle of the bar charts in Gorton and Denton. Best narrative wins. Best ground games wins.
Exclusively, I can reveal what Britain Predicts says if the tactical voting choice was Green vs. Reform, alongside Labour vs. Reform.
It’s rather annoying.
It’s neck and neck either way.
If it’s Green vs. Reform, it’s Reform 35 per cent, Green 32 per cent.
If it’s Labour vs. Reform, it’s Reform 34 per cent, Labour 32 per cent.
Labour voters are more willing to go Green in a tight fight. Green voters are more reluctant to go Labour.
This gives no one clarity. Who has the best chance of beating back Reform? Statistically, Labour’s gap is two points compared to the Greens’ three, simply I suspect by virtue of being further behind from the start.
Turnout was 44 per cent at the last election, a big drop on 2019. I would not be surprised if it stays the same on 2024, if not rises somewhat. No party is yielding1. This will be a photo finish.
The Gorton and Denton by-election will be held on 26 February. Britain Elects will be live throughout the night on YouTube, Twitter and Twitch. (So long as my Budget Council meeting finishes on time…!)
Well, unless you’re Your Party.
I don’t believe that there are many that have been taken in by the Islamogreen party!
Working class/Brexiteer/Patriots!
Come out in vast numbers!
ReFuk ≡ welcome Putin
Green ≡ Capitulation
Either way the Disunited Kingdoms lose.