The Greatest Gamble
A despatch from the Makerfield constituency
The WhatsApp chat pings. “Just got back [from Makerfield]. The worst canvass of my life.”
A Labour activist.
Another ping. Another Labour activist [fresh from a shellacking at the hands of the Greens in London]. “Pretty good tbh, best canvass I’ve been on in ages.”
There is uncertainty among Labour’s ranks about their forays into the Makerfield constituency. Is it going well or badly? It varies estate to estate. New-builds swing more enthusiastically in Labour’s direction. But the old-builds, the prefab council estates, are anything but enthused for the Burnham brand. They’re angry. They’re visceral. And this time, they’re turning out.
In years gone by Reform-type voters wouldn’t be outing themselves to nosey opposition activists. They ended up being scribbled down by furrow-browed activists as “won’t say” after a doorstep conversation. Or just against. Now, after more than a year of being the most popular party nationally, Reform voters declare it with their heads held high. In some seats that Labour went on to lose to Reform by a canter in last year’s local elections, the share known to Labour doorknockers as Reform wasn’t even five per cent. Now it’s known. And it’s often double or triple that.
Who will win the Makerfield by-election? The constituency polls say Labour. Or rather: Andy Burnham. And by a margin of a thousand votes or three. But as I’ve written for the New Statesman, I have doubts the margin will be as great. It’s hard to comprehend that Labour, polling half the national share it got in the general election today, could gain votes in Makerfield. Demographically, Makerfield errs Reform. If a general election were held now, Labour could win a majority and this seat would still go Reform. It’s a tough slog. And after six rounds in the seat, after multiple visits, it sure feels it.
There is no “Makerfield”. There are a number of small towns and villages, estates old and new, which make up the Makerfield area. In some respects this constituency ought to be “Wigan South.” In others it ought to be “South Central Lancashire”. It’s in the Wigan borough. It doesn’t feel Greater Manchester (a common feeling among the voters). And in the local elections just gone it voted enthusiastically for Reform. Not one council seat within the constituency went Labour’s way.
The battle of the stakeboards only affirms that, for even as we approached polling day, Reform was just about winning it. Throughout Hindley, Abram, Ashton, and Orrell I could count 92 Reform to 78 Labour households with posters and stakeboards. I could also count 19 Restore Britain households. And one lonely Green.
Why not more Labour boards? On a Labour canvass, I overheard why.
“I don’t want to get my windows smashed in.”
It was said with a splash of humour. But after seeing footage of a rather aggressive man yanking pro-Burnham boards from people’s homes, I could see the truth to it. This is Reformland. And anyone unhappy with that need not speak up.
Driving past a snooker club in Restore colours and a car garage in Reform, I found myself in Bickershaw. New-builds on one side of the road. An old council estate on the other. Labour feels bullish here. They’ll probably win this ward, they think, even though it went 56 per cent Reform to 24 per cent Labour only a few weeks ago.
But the response is mixed. There is love for Andy, but not necessarily votes for Andy.
One conversation.
“I like Andy, but I’m not voting. For anyone. They’re all out to line their own pockets.”
The canvasser pushes. “Even Andy?”
“Maybe not Andy. I don’t know.”
“Why not vote for him?”
A lot of umming and ahhing followed. Affirming your appreciation for the star power with a vote feels like a step too far for some here.
A former organiser for Labour takes me aside.
“If this doesn’t work. If knocking on doors in the way we have doesn’t work. If sending a literal horde of activists for ‘Andy bloody Burnham’ doesn’t work, then we’re screwed. This is life or death for the Labour party.”
Restore’s presence in the seat is unexpected. “Deport Millions” is the social media slogan of some of their activists. And it’s hard to deny it has currency here. On a weekday their pub was packed out with more than three dozen activists. For stakeboards they’re certainly not nothing. And the constituency polls do have them on course to do more than save their deposit.
But a Reform press officer is adamant. They’re not getting anything like the polls, he says. Their canvass returns show minimal switching. More like three per cent than eight.
And yet Reform have a doorstep strategy to deal with Restore. If one is found, they’re marked up for letters from Nigel Farage and additional knocks by select activists. That doesn’t feel like the approach to a force apparently only on three per cent.
But something to note is this. A mutual friend has had sight of the marked registers for the referendum and past few general and local elections in Makerfield. Cross-checking them against households with Restore signs finds most don’t have a history of voting. Those Restore signs? For the most part, they’re new voters. Or re-engaged voters.
Or unreliable voters?
Labour say they’ve canvassed the seat five times. Labour say they’ve made more than 40,000 contacts, maybe even 50,000, since Josh Simons resigned. They come from nothing. The CLP, the Wigan Labour Group, had minimal data on their voters here. The party was starting from nothing.
But so was Reform.
It’s hard not to see why voters feel left-behind here. Literally, they have. Whereas in Brighton or Worthing or Chorley party activists are famed for going out in all weathers, in Wigan there’s little history to speak of. The apathy displayed by some of the voters tells its own story.
Two voters.
“I don’t care about anyone else, I want somebody to do something for me”
Bickershaw voter. Irate with the excess fly-tipping down the lane. Untouched and unsorted for longer than can be remembered.
And another.
“Nothing happens here. I wouldn’t care if Reform got rid of the NHS. We need to try something different. We get nothing. Maybe they’ll do something right. If they don’t, at least we tried.”
Abram voter. Prefab council estate. Park’s a state. Young people play on the street.
As a councillor I would, appreciably, pin most of these problems down to the impotence of underfunded and inefficient local authorities. But the voters don’t see that. They see little change. And so seek to lash out.
At the last general election turnout was 53 per cent. 40,000 people had cast their ballots. The expectation from both sides, Reform and Labour, is that it will go higher.
Though to whose benefit?
In the local election results just gone, turnout rose most where Reform gained the most.
Demographically, Makerfield should vote Reform. It should vote majority Reform. Or majority Reform and Restore. That the constituency polling isn’t showing that is an eye-opener. That Brand Burnham could upend all expectations and give progressive voters reason to turn out would mark a break with what we’ve known for the past two years. A bolt from the blue, a route for the left to win again.
It’s the greatest gamble. And the most important parliamentary by-election in the Labour party’s history. Let’s see what happens.
Britain Elects will be live on YouTube, Twitch and Twitter throughout the night and as the results (for there are other by-elections!) come in. Be sure to tune in. It’s been a long day, a long slog, a long campaign.
I'm not sure any mainstream UK party has any idea of the economic policies needed to transform these communities, or how to explain them.
This is really interesting! Burnham would obviously like a strong margin to walk into Westminster with authority but this suggests it's going to be much tighter than his camp would like.
I think the Restore factor could be an underreported story for tonight - understandably, given what's about to unfold in Labour. But, if they perform well, it's a strong signal about how much the right-wing vote is fragmenting, and that could be a much bigger problem for Reform heading into a general election than just losing Makerfield.