A Scottish surprise?

What does the Britain Predicts model say for the Hamilton by-election?

If there’s one thing you remember today, let it be this. The rise of Reform is not an English phenomenon. Reform is polling between two-in-ten and three-in-ten of the popular vote across Great Britain right now. In Wales it’s a similar enough share. And in Scotland it’s looking shy of two-in-ten.

Two-in-ten is not nothing. It’s significant. And it’s bigger than anything Ukip was able to obtain during their heyday in England alone. The days of Scotland being impregnable to the “English nationalist” that is Nigel Farage appear to be very much over.

It would take a sizeable polling shift between now and next May for there to be no Members of the Scottish Parliament bearing the Reform banner.

Which brings us to today’s by-election. In the Scottish parliamentary seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, voters go to the polls to elect a new MSP. The incumbent, Christina McKelvie (SNP), died in March of this year. She had served the seat as its constituency’s MSP since 2011.

A lot has changed in Scotland since 2021 when this seat last went to the polls. But a lot more has changed since 2024 when Labour won its election landslide.

In ScotParl terms, the SNP is still perceived as the best of a bad bunch by the voters. Very rarely since 2011 has the SNP conceded first place in the opinion polls to another party. But compared to when this Hamilton seat last went to the polls, the SNP is down 11-15pts nationally. Labour, meanwhile, is down only 3.

Reform is up from nothing and they’re sitting on between 15-20 per cent in some Scottish polls right now. In this by-election, that doesn’t put them odds on to win this seat. Far from it. But it doesn’t make them no-hopers.

On the ground the indication is Hamilton itself will vote for the SNP. But Larkhall, with its strong protestant leanings (and Rangers loyalty to boot), errs more to Reform. Activists of both black and yellow and red and yellow rosettes report similar enough findings. The strength for Reform is surprising in Larkhall.

The Britain Predicts model says the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse seat will vote thus: an SNP hold, but by a margin of four percentage points.

In by-election terms that’s an advantage of around one thousand votes over their nearest competitor.

The SNP would come away with 34 per cent of the vote, a fall of 12pts. Labour would stay in the second place with 28 per cent, down 6pts on 2021.

Reform would come from nowhere to take third with 23 per cent of the vote. And the Conservatives would languish in fourth on 7 per cent, down 11pts.

It would be psephologically sound to mention error margins here. The Britain Elects poll tracker - which powers the Britain Predicts model - is going off fewer polls than we’d like. Scotland has been polled, yes, but by a narrower range of market research firms than what you would get across the UK. The dearth of data diversity means we should be operating off wider margins for error in this by-election forecast than we would normally.

What it means is we cannot rule out Reform pipping Labour for second place. Although it is unlikely. More importantly, we cannot rule out the SNP losing this election. Nor can we rule out the SNP winning it by a canter. Both scenarios are less likely than the SNP holding the seat by around a thousand votes. But they’re not impossible ones. Something to consider.

Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will be counting on Thursday night with the results expected in the early hours of Friday morning.